Predictions 2024

This survey contains 16 statements which will become true or false by the end of 2024.

Give each statement a probability between 1% and 99% depending on how likely it is to become true.

You'll be scored on how accurate your predictions are.

If you don't want to do one, just answer 50%.

First though, enter your name and email so I can send you the results at the end of the year.

This survey is by Todd Liebenschutz-Jones.

Deadline: 15 February 2024

Name:

Email:

Before 30 June 2024

Give each statement a probability between 1% and 99%.

If you don't want to do a question, just answer 50%.

Manchester United will win the 2023/2024 Premier League.

They're currently third in the table, behind Manchester City and Arsenal.

Barclays will have no downtime in May.

In July, August and September this year, only August had no downtime.

Petrol will cost <140 pence per litre in the first week of April.

It costs 140 pence per litre at the moment.

1 Bitcoin will be worth ≥ $50,000 at some point before 30 June.

It costs $46,944 at the moment.

The UK national threat level will remain at ‘substantial’ until 30 June.

It's been 'substantial' since February 2022. This is the middle threat level.

Before 31 December 2024

Give each statement a probability between 1% and 99%.

If you don't want to do a question, just answer 50%.

There will be an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above.

The movie “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” will be released in 2024 and have a Rotten Tomatoes score of ≥ 80%.

SpaceX Starship reaches orbit.

It's first two attempts in April and November failed.

The UK will vote the Labour party into government.

Donald Trump will be elected as president of the US.

Somewhere in the UK will exceed 35 degrees Celsius.

The hottest temperature in 2023 was 33.5 degrees Celsius, and in 2022, it was 40.3 degrees Celsius.

China will get the most gold medals in the Paris 2024 Olympics.

The WHO will declare a new Global Health Emergency.

For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.

The percentage of Year 6 children who are obese will decrease compared to last year.

It is currently at 22.7%, down from 23.4% the year before.

Winds of Winter, the next Game of Thrones book, will be published.

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